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Election season is once again upon us, and the same issues seem to be perennially before us, with some new wrinkles thanks to Donald J. Trump. Democracy is allegedly on the ballot — and indeed it is — and has been almost since the birth of our Republic.
Congress recently passed another extension of the debt ceiling, thus averting a government “shut down” until just before Christmas. This Kabuki theater occurs with great regularity, and like Kabuki, always has the same cast of characters with the same song and dance leading to the same conclusion. Deficits march on, and therefore debt perpetually rises. “We can’t go on like this!” cries the chorus to the play. “Sooner or later our currency will crash!” supplies the refrain. I can’t argue with that — sooner or later everything crashes, including you, me, and every nation that has seen the light of day. The interesting question, never asked or answered, is “When?”
That’s where the villain of the play comes in. Our Founding Fathers were, like the ancient Greeks whom they much admired, cautious about democracy. They gave us a Constitutional republic, NOT a Constitutional democracy. In his long litany of immortal aphorisms, Franklin said, “When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.”
Initially, the only federal office for which voters could directly vote was Congress. In addition, the franchise was limited essentially to white men who either owned property or paid taxes. In other words, in order to vote, you had to have (white) skin in the game. Since the Constitution allowed states to set voting requirements, these varied widely through time. The franchise was continuously expanded until the nineteenth Amendment was passed in 1920 giving women the universal right to vote. From that point on every citizen, with a few restrictions, including age, was allowed to vote, and this is where we sit at the moment — except for the citizenship requirement, which the left wants to eliminate de jure or de facto.
In addition to the franchise expanding, the Seventeenth Amendment mandated the direct election of Senators. Heretofore, Senators had been selected by the various state legislatures.
In parallel to the franchise history, Federal spending, and the resulting deficits and debt, rose by fits and starts . Coincidence? I think not. Wars, depressions, and other extraneous events have had major impacts, but since the mid-1830s, when we had no debt to speak of, the trajectory has been ever upwards. We first hit a billion in 1863, a trillion in 1982, and now, according to the US National Debt Clock, we stand at 35.4 trillion, rising by millions in the time it takes me to write this. While numbers are subject to constant revision, this fiscal year we are on track to spend seven trillion dollars, and borrow $2.2 trillion. When will we hit a quadrillion? Fifty years? When a loaf of bread costs $1,000?
President Trump has promised, if elected, to rein this in by appointing a special commission on controlling government spending, headed by Elon Musk. (The hundreds of pages of the notorious Project 2025 outline precisely the same thing.) Good luck!
Consider the main categories of spending (citing the numbers in the Debt Clock): Medicare/Medicaid $1.8 trillion, Social Security $1.5 trillion, interest on the debt $.95 trillion, Defense $.93 trillion. This totals about $5.2 trillion, which means absolutely everything else the government does equals about $2 trillion, somewhat less than the current projected deficit. The voters will scream bloody murder if anyone tries to cut Medicare and Medicaid, or Social Security. Both are out of control, and both can and should be substantially curtailed, but “democracy” will see to it that that does not happen.
The Dems, naturally, want to tax the “rich” — meaning anyone middle class or above — even floating an unrealized capital gain tax. Kiss your retirement plans goodbye if that ever happens. But revenue isn’t the problem. New record highs every year. Spending is the problem, and “the people” are all for it.
In reality only a benign economically literate dictator can put an end to this spiral. And we certainly do not want to elect one of those, do we?
— Charles Milliken is a professor emeritus after 22 years of teaching economics and related subjects at Siena Heights University. He can be reached [email protected].